We've seen thus far with ethics scandals, we are looking for a Jupiter-to-Pallas transit...
Jupiter for publicity and Pallas for ethics, generally accompanied by a
major outer-planet transit which represents a significant change in
status (usually a Uranus-to-Jupiter transit).
Tavis Smiley's natal Pallas is at 0 Sag, and his progressed Pallas is at 19 Sag. His natal Jupiter is at 26 Tau and his progressed Jupiter is at 22 Tau. Transiting Jupiter is at 13 Sco and transiting Uranus is at 24 Aries. We don't have a birth time for him, so we are missing some potentially key data points... but this is the first potential "miss" for the Jupiter-Pallas scandal theory I've found.
Smiley completely denies the allegations, and there may be other relevant details which may explain things. Or perhaps the Jupiter-Pallas thing actually does suggest guilt, and Smiley is actually not guilty.